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HB Torshavn vs HNK Hajduk Split — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
8/1/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundTórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HB Torshavn62%
×Draw28%
HNK Hajduk Split9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Torshavn
1.33
HNK Hajduk Split
0.34

HB Torshavn creates 291% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

HB Torshavn
1.17
HNK Hajduk Split
0.50

allows per match

HB Torshavn
0.17
HNK Hajduk Split
1.50

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–19%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw
91%
HB Torshavn or HNK Hajduk Split
72%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split
38%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+
31%
HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals
74%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
38%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
15%
HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
29%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
5%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
87%
HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 1.17 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

HNK Hajduk Split attack 0.50 + HB Torshavn defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HB Torshavn scores more
62%
level
28%
HNK Hajduk Split scores more
9%

HB Torshavn at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: HB Torshavn 0–0 HNK Hajduk Split

HB Torshavn and HNK Hajduk Split drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.