HB Koge 1–4 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats

HB Koge

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Sonderjyske

10/30/2022

1. Division · Round 15Capelli Sport Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HB Koge26%

×Draw22%

Sonderjyske52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB KogeExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.92

HB Koge

1.31

Sonderjyske

1.92

Sonderjyske creates 47% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 32 away

1.40

creates per match

2.34

1.50

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

HB Koge

1.40

Sonderjyske

2.34

allows per match

HB Koge

1.50

Sonderjyske

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Koge+0.00on par

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Koge ↓

Sonderjyske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

HB Koge or draw

48%

HB Koge or Sonderjyske

78%

Draw or Sonderjyske

74%

Winning margin

HB Koge wins by 2+

11%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

HB Koge 1+ goals

73%

HB Koge 2+ goals

38%

HB Koge 3+ goals

14%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

85%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

57%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

HB Koge (draw refunded)

34%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Koge at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 128 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 2.34, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Koge attack 1.40 + Sonderjyske defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sonderjyske attack 2.34 + HB Koge defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HB Koge scores more

26%

level

22%

Sonderjyske scores more

52%

Sonderjyske at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff