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HB Koge vs Roskilde — Friendlies Clubs 2026

HB Koge
HB Koge
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Roskilde
Roskilde
M. Warming 37'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

HB Koge44%
×Draw24%
Roskilde33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Koge
1.70
Roskilde
1.44

HB Koge creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

HB Koge
1.73
Roskilde
1.78

allows per match

HB Koge
1.09
Roskilde
1.67

finishing

HB Koge+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Koge ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

HB Koge or draw
67%
HB Koge or Roskilde
76%
Draw or Roskilde
56%

Winning margin

HB Koge wins by 2+
23%
Roskilde wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

HB Koge 1+ goals
82%
HB Koge 2+ goals
51%
HB Koge 3+ goals
24%
Roskilde 1+ goals
76%
Roskilde 2+ goals
42%
Roskilde 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HB Koge (draw refunded)
57%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Koge at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Koge attack 1.73 + Roskilde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Roskilde attack 1.78 + HB Koge defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HB Koge scores more
44%
level
24%
Roskilde scores more
33%

HB Koge at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HB Koge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
M. Warming
HB
Roskilde
Nicklas Pedersen
Manager: Nicklas Pedersen
Kristoffer Johannsen
Manager: Kristoffer Johannsen

Friendlies Clubs: HB Koge 1–0 Roskilde

HB Koge beat Roskilde 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Warming (37').