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HB II vs B68 II — 1. Deild 2019

HB II
HB II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
B68 II
B68 II
5/19/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 10Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HB II59%
×Draw19%
B68 II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB II
2.44
B68 II
1.45

HB II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

creates per match

HB II
1.65
B68 II
0.62

allows per match

HB II
2.27
B68 II
3.23

finishing

HB II+0.00on par
B68 II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB II ↓

B68 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

HB II or draw
78%
HB II or B68 II
81%
Draw or B68 II
41%

Winning margin

HB II wins by 2+
38%
B68 II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HB II 1+ goals
91%
HB II 2+ goals
70%
HB II 3+ goals
43%
B68 II 1+ goals
77%
B68 II 2+ goals
42%
B68 II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HB II (draw refunded)
73%
B68 II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.27 · 88 matches

B68 II away — creates 0.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB II attack 1.65 + B68 II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.44

B68 II attack 0.62 + HB II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

HB II scores more
59%
level
19%
B68 II scores more
22%

HB II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HB II 6 – 0 B68 II

HB II beat B68 II 6-0 in 1. Deild on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.