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HB II vs AB — 1. Deild 2019

HB II
HB II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
AB
AB
5/31/20241. Deild1. Deild · Round 12Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

HB II23%
×Draw21%
AB56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB II
1.26
AB
2.10

AB creates 67% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 40 away

creates per match

HB II
1.65
AB
1.93

allows per match

HB II
2.27
AB
0.88

finishing

HB II+0.00on par
AB+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB II ↓

AB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HB II or draw
44%
HB II or AB
79%
Draw or AB
77%

Winning margin

HB II wins by 2+
9%
AB wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

HB II 1+ goals
72%
HB II 2+ goals
36%
HB II 3+ goals
13%
AB 1+ goals
88%
AB 2+ goals
62%
AB 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

HB II (draw refunded)
29%
AB (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.27 · 88 matches

AB away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB II attack 1.65 + AB defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.26

AB attack 1.93 + HB II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

HB II scores more
23%
level
21%
AB scores more
56%

AB at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HB II vs AB

AB beat HB II 4-0 in 1. Deild on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.