HB Chelghoum Laïd 1–1 RC Relizane: Result & Stats

HB Chelghoum Laïd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

RC Relizane

12/11/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade 11 Décembre 1960

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HB Chelghoum Laïd49%

×Draw25%

RC Relizane26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB Chelghoum LaïdExpected goals in this matchRC Relizane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

HB Chelghoum Laïd

1.59

RC Relizane

1.07

HB Chelghoum Laïd creates 49% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

0.81

creates per match

0.80

1.34

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

HB Chelghoum Laïd

0.81

RC Relizane

0.80

allows per match

HB Chelghoum Laïd

1.34

RC Relizane

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Chelghoum Laïd+0.00on par

RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Chelghoum Laïd ↓

RC Relizane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

HB Chelghoum Laïd or draw

74%

HB Chelghoum Laïd or RC Relizane

75%

Draw or RC Relizane

51%

Winning margin

HB Chelghoum Laïd wins by 2+

26%

RC Relizane wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HB Chelghoum Laïd 1+ goals

80%

HB Chelghoum Laïd 2+ goals

47%

HB Chelghoum Laïd 3+ goals

21%

RC Relizane 1+ goals

66%

RC Relizane 2+ goals

29%

RC Relizane 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

HB Chelghoum Laïd (draw refunded)

66%

RC Relizane (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Chelghoum Laïd at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Chelghoum Laïd attack 0.81 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + HB Chelghoum Laïd defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

HB Chelghoum Laïd scores more

49%

level

25%

RC Relizane scores more

26%

HB Chelghoum Laïd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HB Chelghoum Laïd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff