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HB Chelghoum Laïd vs Olympique Medea — Ligue 1 2018

HB Chelghoum Laïd
HB Chelghoum Laïd
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
2/5/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade 11 Décembre 1960

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HB Chelghoum Laïd39%
×Draw29%
Olympique Medea32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HB Chelghoum Laïd
1.14
Olympique Medea
1.01

HB Chelghoum Laïd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 53 away

creates per match

HB Chelghoum Laïd
0.81
Olympique Medea
0.68

allows per match

HB Chelghoum Laïd
1.34
Olympique Medea
1.47

finishing

HB Chelghoum Laïd+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Chelghoum Laïd ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

HB Chelghoum Laïd or draw
68%
HB Chelghoum Laïd or Olympique Medea
71%
Draw or Olympique Medea
61%

Winning margin

HB Chelghoum Laïd wins by 2+
16%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HB Chelghoum Laïd 1+ goals
68%
HB Chelghoum Laïd 2+ goals
32%
HB Chelghoum Laïd 3+ goals
11%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
27%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HB Chelghoum Laïd (draw refunded)
55%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Chelghoum Laïd at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Chelghoum Laïd attack 0.81 + Olympique Medea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Olympique Medea attack 0.68 + HB Chelghoum Laïd defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HB Chelghoum Laïd scores more
39%
level
29%
Olympique Medea scores more
32%

HB Chelghoum Laïd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HB Chelghoum Laïd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: HB Chelghoum Laïd 2–0 Olympique Medea

HB Chelghoum Laïd beat Olympique Medea 2-0 in Ligue 1 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade 11 Décembre 1960 in Chelghoum Laïd.