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Hay Al Wadi vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
FT
2 – 1
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
7/12/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 26Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hay Al Wadi42%
×Draw30%
Hilal Obayed28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hay Al Wadi
1.17
Hilal Obayed
0.88

Hay Al Wadi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.02
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi
0.89
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw
72%
Hay Al Wadi or Hilal Obayed
70%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
58%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
18%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
69%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
33%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
11%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
59%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
22%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
61%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.89 · 85 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.02 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Hay Al Wadi defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more
42%
level
30%
Hilal Obayed scores more
28%

Hay Al Wadi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hay Al Wadi vs Hilal Obayed

Hay Al Wadi beat Hilal Obayed 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 12, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.