Hay Al Wadi vs Al Merreikh El Obeid — Sudani Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Hay Al Wadi43%
Al Merreikh El Obeid30%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hay Al Wadi creates 25% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hay Al Wadi ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches
Al Merreikh El Obeid away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hay Al Wadi attack 0.96 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.42
Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.07 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Hay Al Wadi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Merreikh II
Al Hilal Port SudanHay Al Wadi
Umm Mughad
Hilal El-Fasher
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Alamal Atbara
Haidob En Nahud
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Shorta
Al-Mergheni
Al Fallah
Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Merreikh
Al FajrAl Merreikh El Obeid
Al Taqadom
Al Hilal Karima
Al Rabta Kosti
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al Ahli Khartoum
Merreikh Kosti
KoberIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hay Al Wadi host Al Merreikh El Obeid on Thursday, 10 July 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Sudani Premier League: Hay Al Wadi 1–0 Al Merreikh El Obeid
Hay Al Wadi beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 10, 2025.
The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.