Hay Al Wadi vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Hay Al Wadi

CANC

12:00

Al Hilal Omdurman

4/29/2023

Sudani Premier League · Round 22Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hay Al Wadi23%

×Draw29%

Al Hilal Omdurman48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al WadiExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.31

Hay Al Wadi

0.82

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.31

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

1.04

creates per match

1.40

1.23

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.04

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.40

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.23

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw

52%

Hay Al Wadi or Al Hilal Omdurman

71%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

77%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

7%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

56%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

20%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

5%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

73%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

38%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

33%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.04 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.40 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more

23%

level

29%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

48%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff