Hay Al Wadi 1–1 Al Hilal Kadougli: Result & Stats

Hay Al Wadi

FT

1 – 1

Al Hilal Kadougli

10/16/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 33Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hay Al Wadi47%

×Draw29%

Al Hilal Kadougli24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al WadiExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Kadougli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.84

Hay Al Wadi

1.29

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.84

Hay Al Wadi creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 43 away

1.02

creates per match

0.79

0.89

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.02

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.79

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi

0.89

Al Hilal Kadougli

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw

76%

Hay Al Wadi or Al Hilal Kadougli

71%

Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli

53%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

22%

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

72%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

37%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

14%

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals

57%

Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals

21%

Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

66%

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.89 · 85 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.02 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Hay Al Wadi defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more

47%

level

29%

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more

24%

Hay Al Wadi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff