Hay Al Wadi 1–1 Al Ahly Shendi: Result & Stats

Hay Al Wadi

FT

1 – 1

Al Ahly Shendi

7/12/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 23Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Hay Al Wadi38%

×Draw33%

Al Ahly Shendi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al WadiExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly Shendi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.82

Hay Al Wadi

0.97

Al Ahly Shendi

0.82

Hay Al Wadi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 75 away

1.02

creates per match

0.76

0.89

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi

1.02

Al Ahly Shendi

0.76

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi

0.89

Al Ahly Shendi

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al Ahly Shendi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw

71%

Hay Al Wadi or Al Ahly Shendi

67%

Draw or Al Ahly Shendi

62%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

14%

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

62%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

25%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

7%

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals

56%

Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals

20%

Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

56%

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.89 · 85 matches

Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.02 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.76 + Hay Al Wadi defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more

38%

level

33%

Al Ahly Shendi scores more

29%

Hay Al Wadi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff