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Hay Al Wadi vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
FT
2 – 0
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
4/10/2017Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 12Nyala Stadium (Nyala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hay Al Wadi33%
×Draw28%
Al Ahli Wad Medani39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hay Al Wadi
1.10
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.23

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.04
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.22

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.23
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.17

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw
61%
Hay Al Wadi or Al Ahli Wad Medani
72%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
67%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
13%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
67%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
30%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
10%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
35%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
46%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.04 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.22 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more
33%
level
28%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
39%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Hay Al Wadi 2–0 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Hay Al Wadi beat Al Ahli Wad Medani 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on April 10, 2017.

The match was played at Nyala Stadium (Nyala).