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Hay Al Wadi vs Al-Ahli Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
FT
0 – 0
Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
12/25/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 15Nyala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hay Al Wadi65%
×Draw22%
Al-Ahli Atbara14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hay Al Wadi
1.84
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.70

Hay Al Wadi creates 163% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.02
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.50

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi
0.89
Al-Ahli Atbara
2.67

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw
86%
Hay Al Wadi or Al-Ahli Atbara
78%
Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara
35%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
38%
Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
84%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
55%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
28%
Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
50%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
16%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
83%
Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.89 · 85 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.02 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.84

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Hay Al Wadi defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more
65%
level
22%
Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
14%

Hay Al Wadi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hay Al Wadi vs Al-Ahli Atbara

Hay Al Wadi and Al-Ahli Atbara drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 25, 2019.

The match was played at Nyala Stadium in Nyala.