Hay Al Arab 1–0 Tuti: Result & Stats

Hay Al Arab

FT

1 – 0

Tuti

2/18/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 11Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hay Al Arab42%

×Draw29%

Tuti29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al ArabExpected goals in this matchTuti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.98

Hay Al Arab

1.23

Tuti

0.98

Hay Al Arab creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

1.22

creates per match

0.84

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hay Al Arab

1.22

Tuti

0.84

allows per match

Hay Al Arab

1.11

Tuti

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Arab ↓

Tuti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hay Al Arab or draw

71%

Hay Al Arab or Tuti

71%

Draw or Tuti

58%

Winning margin

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

18%

Tuti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

71%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

35%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

13%

Tuti 1+ goals

62%

Tuti 2+ goals

26%

Tuti 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

59%

Tuti (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Arab at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Arab attack 1.22 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tuti attack 0.84 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hay Al Arab scores more

42%

level

29%

Tuti scores more

29%

Hay Al Arab at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hay Al Arab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff