Hay Al Arab 3–2 Hilal Obayed: Result & Stats

Hay Al Arab

FT

3 – 2

Hilal Obayed

10/26/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 7Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hay Al Arab43%

×Draw28%

Hilal Obayed29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al ArabExpected goals in this matchHilal Obayed

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.99

Hay Al Arab

1.27

Hilal Obayed

0.99

Hay Al Arab creates 28% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

1.22

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Hay Al Arab

1.22

Hilal Obayed

0.86

allows per match

Hay Al Arab

1.11

Hilal Obayed

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Arab ↓

Hilal Obayed →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hay Al Arab or draw

71%

Hay Al Arab or Hilal Obayed

72%

Draw or Hilal Obayed

57%

Winning margin

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

19%

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

72%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

36%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

14%

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals

63%

Hilal Obayed 2+ goals

26%

Hilal Obayed 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

60%

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Arab at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Arab attack 1.22 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hay Al Arab scores more

43%

level

28%

Hilal Obayed scores more

29%

Hay Al Arab at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hay Al Arab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff