Hawks 2–0 Waa Banjul Football: Result & Stats

Hawks

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Waa Banjul Football

5/18/2023

GFA League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hawks41%

×Draw33%

Waa Banjul Football26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HawksExpected goals in this matchWaa Banjul Football

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.72

Hawks

0.99

Waa Banjul Football

0.72

Hawks creates 38% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 58 away

1.16

creates per match

0.59

0.86

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Hawks

1.16

Waa Banjul Football

0.59

allows per match

Hawks

0.86

Waa Banjul Football

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hawks+0.00on par

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawks ↓

Waa Banjul Football →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hawks or draw

74%

Hawks or Waa Banjul Football

67%

Draw or Waa Banjul Football

59%

Winning margin

Hawks wins by 2+

16%

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hawks 1+ goals

63%

Hawks 2+ goals

26%

Hawks 3+ goals

8%

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals

51%

Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals

16%

Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hawks (draw refunded)

61%

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hawks at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Waa Banjul Football away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hawks attack 1.16 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.59 + Hawks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hawks scores more

41%

level

33%

Waa Banjul Football scores more

26%

Hawks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff