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Hawks vs Tallinding United — GFA League 2020

Hawks
Hawks
FT
1 – 1
Tallinding United
Tallinding United
1/29/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hawks43%
×Draw30%
Tallinding United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hawks
1.19
Tallinding United
0.90

Hawks creates 32% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hawks
1.16
Tallinding United
0.93

allows per match

Hawks
0.86
Tallinding United
1.21

finishing

Hawks+0.00on par
Tallinding United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawks ↓

Tallinding United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hawks or draw
72%
Hawks or Tallinding United
70%
Draw or Tallinding United
57%

Winning margin

Hawks wins by 2+
18%
Tallinding United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hawks 1+ goals
70%
Hawks 2+ goals
33%
Hawks 3+ goals
12%
Tallinding United 1+ goals
59%
Tallinding United 2+ goals
23%
Tallinding United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hawks (draw refunded)
61%
Tallinding United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hawks at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Tallinding United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hawks attack 1.16 + Tallinding United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tallinding United attack 0.93 + Hawks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hawks scores more
43%
level
30%
Tallinding United scores more
28%

Hawks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hawks vs Tallinding United

Hawks and Tallinding United drew 1-1 in GFA League on January 29, 2021.