Hawks 2–1 Steve Biko: Result & Stats | GFA League

Hawks

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Steve Biko

4/25/2023

GFA League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hawks39%

×Draw32%

Steve Biko29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HawksExpected goals in this matchSteve Biko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

Hawks

1.04

Steve Biko

0.86

Hawks creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

1.16

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Hawks

1.16

Steve Biko

0.86

allows per match

Hawks

0.86

Steve Biko

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hawks+0.00on par

Steve Biko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawks ↓

Steve Biko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hawks or draw

71%

Hawks or Steve Biko

68%

Draw or Steve Biko

61%

Winning margin

Hawks wins by 2+

15%

Steve Biko wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hawks 1+ goals

65%

Hawks 2+ goals

28%

Hawks 3+ goals

9%

Steve Biko 1+ goals

58%

Steve Biko 2+ goals

21%

Steve Biko 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hawks (draw refunded)

57%

Steve Biko (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hawks at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Steve Biko away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.92 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hawks attack 1.16 + Steve Biko defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Hawks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hawks scores more

39%

level

32%

Steve Biko scores more

29%

Hawks at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff