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Hawks vs Hart Acedemy — GFA League 2020

Hawks
Hawks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
1/30/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hawks41%
×Draw29%
Hart Acedemy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hawks
1.19
Hart Acedemy
0.97

Hawks creates 23% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hawks
1.16
Hart Acedemy
1.07

allows per match

Hawks
0.86
Hart Acedemy
1.23

finishing

Hawks+0.00on par
Hart Acedemy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawks ↓

Hart Acedemy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hawks or draw
70%
Hawks or Hart Acedemy
71%
Draw or Hart Acedemy
59%

Winning margin

Hawks wins by 2+
18%
Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hawks 1+ goals
70%
Hawks 2+ goals
33%
Hawks 3+ goals
12%
Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
62%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
25%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hawks (draw refunded)
58%
Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hawks at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Hart Acedemy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hawks attack 1.16 + Hart Acedemy defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hart Acedemy attack 1.07 + Hawks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hawks scores more
41%
level
29%
Hart Acedemy scores more
30%

Hawks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hawks vs Hart Acedemy

Hawks beat Hart Acedemy 2-1 in GFA League on January 30, 2026.