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Hawks vs Brikama United — GFA League 2020

Hawks
Hawks
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Brikama United
Brikama United
6/20/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hawks40%
×Draw30%
Brikama United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hawks
1.11
Brikama United
0.92

Hawks creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hawks
1.16
Brikama United
0.97

allows per match

Hawks
0.86
Brikama United
1.07

finishing

Hawks+0.00on par
Brikama United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawks ↓

Brikama United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hawks or draw
70%
Hawks or Brikama United
70%
Draw or Brikama United
60%

Winning margin

Hawks wins by 2+
16%
Brikama United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hawks 1+ goals
67%
Hawks 2+ goals
30%
Hawks 3+ goals
10%
Brikama United 1+ goals
60%
Brikama United 2+ goals
23%
Brikama United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hawks (draw refunded)
57%
Brikama United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hawks at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Brikama United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hawks attack 1.16 + Brikama United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Brikama United attack 0.97 + Hawks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hawks scores more
40%
level
30%
Brikama United scores more
30%

Hawks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hawks vs Brikama United

Hawks and Brikama United drew 2-2 in GFA League on June 20, 2025.