Hawick Royal Albert 1–2 Golspie Sutherland

Hawick Royal Albert

1 – 2

Golspie Sutherland

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundAlbert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hawick Royal Albert15%

×Draw19%

Golspie Sutherland66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hawick Royal AlbertExpected goals in this matchGolspie Sutherland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.20

Hawick Royal Albert

0.93

Golspie Sutherland

2.20

Golspie Sutherland creates 137% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

0.60

creates per match

1.00

3.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hawick Royal Albert

0.60

Golspie Sutherland

1.00

allows per match

Hawick Royal Albert

3.40

Golspie Sutherland

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hawick Royal Albert+0.00on par

Golspie Sutherland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawick Royal Albert ↓

Golspie Sutherland →

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hawick Royal Albert or draw

34%

Hawick Royal Albert or Golspie Sutherland

81%

Draw or Golspie Sutherland

85%

Winning margin

Hawick Royal Albert wins by 2+

Golspie Sutherland wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Hawick Royal Albert 1+ goals

61%

Hawick Royal Albert 2+ goals

24%

Hawick Royal Albert 3+ goals

Golspie Sutherland 1+ goals

89%

Golspie Sutherland 2+ goals

64%

Golspie Sutherland 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Hawick Royal Albert (draw refunded)

18%

Golspie Sutherland (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hawick Royal Albert at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Golspie Sutherland away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hawick Royal Albert attack 0.60 + Golspie Sutherland defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Golspie Sutherland attack 1.00 + Hawick Royal Albert defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hawick Royal Albert scores more

15%

level

19%

Golspie Sutherland scores more

66%

Golspie Sutherland at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Golspie Sutherland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff