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Havlíčkův Brod vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
9/3/20224. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 5Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod34%
×Draw23%
Vysočina Jihlava II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havlíčkův Brod
1.52
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.75

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.71
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.49
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw
57%
Havlíčkův Brod or Vysočina Jihlava II
77%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
66%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
16%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
78%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
45%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
20%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
83%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
52%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
44%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more
34%
level
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
43%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havlíčkův Brod vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Havlíčkův Brod 6-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Losích in Havlíčkův Brod.