Havlíčkův Brod 1–1 Stará Říše: Result & Stats

Havlíčkův Brod

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stará Říše

8/5/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod56%

×Draw22%

Stará Říše23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Havlíčkův BrodExpected goals in this matchStará Říše

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.22

Havlíčkův Brod

2.02

Stará Říše

1.22

Havlíčkův Brod creates 66% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

1.71

creates per match

0.95

1.49

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod

1.71

Stará Říše

0.95

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod

1.49

Stará Říše

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par

Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Stará Říše →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw

77%

Havlíčkův Brod or Stará Říše

78%

Draw or Stará Říše

44%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+

33%

Stará Říše wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals

87%

Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals

60%

Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals

33%

Stará Říše 1+ goals

70%

Stará Říše 2+ goals

34%

Stará Říše 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)

71%

Stará Říše (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more

56%

level

22%

Stará Říše scores more

23%

Havlíčkův Brod at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff