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Havlíčkův Brod vs Humpolec — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Humpolec
Humpolec
8/3/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod50%
×Draw23%
Humpolec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havlíčkův Brod
1.86
Humpolec
1.32

Havlíčkův Brod creates 41% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.71
Humpolec
1.15

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.49
Humpolec
2.02

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par
Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Humpolec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw
73%
Havlíčkův Brod or Humpolec
77%
Draw or Humpolec
50%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
28%
Humpolec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
84%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
55%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
28%
Humpolec 1+ goals
73%
Humpolec 2+ goals
38%
Humpolec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
65%
Humpolec (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.02 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Humpolec attack 1.15 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more
50%
level
23%
Humpolec scores more
27%

Havlíčkův Brod at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Havlíčkův Brod 2–1 Humpolec

Havlíčkův Brod beat Humpolec 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Losích in Havlíčkův Brod.