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Havířov vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
3 – 5
Třinec II
Třinec II
9/13/20204. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Havířov50%
×Draw20%
Třinec II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
2.44
Třinec II
1.89

Havířov creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 4 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
70%
Havířov or Třinec II
80%
Draw or Třinec II
50%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
31%
Třinec II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
91%
Havířov 2+ goals
70%
Havířov 3+ goals
43%
Třinec II 1+ goals
85%
Třinec II 2+ goals
56%
Třinec II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
62%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.44

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Havířov scores more
50%
level
20%
Třinec II scores more
30%

Havířov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havířov vs Třinec II

Třinec II beat Havířov 5-3 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.