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Havířov vs Polanka nad Odrou — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
10/13/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 11Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Havířov44%
×Draw23%
Polanka nad Odrou33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
1.77
Polanka nad Odrou
1.52

Havířov creates 16% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 63 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Polanka nad Odrou
1.78

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Polanka nad Odrou
1.16

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
67%
Havířov or Polanka nad Odrou
77%
Draw or Polanka nad Odrou
56%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
23%
Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
83%
Havířov 2+ goals
53%
Havířov 3+ goals
26%
Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
78%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
45%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
57%
Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Havířov scores more
44%
level
23%
Polanka nad Odrou scores more
33%

Havířov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Havířov 2–3 Polanka nad Odrou

Polanka nad Odrou beat Havířov 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.