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Havířov vs Dětmarovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
CANC
14:30
Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Havířov73%
×Draw15%
Dětmarovice13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
2.97
Dětmarovice
1.19

Havířov creates 150% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 18 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Dětmarovice
1.11

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Dětmarovice
3.56

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Dětmarovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
87%
Havířov or Dětmarovice
85%
Draw or Dětmarovice
27%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
53%
Dětmarovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
95%
Havířov 2+ goals
79%
Havířov 3+ goals
56%
Dětmarovice 1+ goals
70%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
33%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
85%
Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.97

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Havířov scores more
73%
level
15%
Dětmarovice scores more
13%

Havířov at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Havířov vs Dětmarovice — Match Preview

Havířov face Dětmarovice on May 2, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Havířov host Dětmarovice at Stadion Dukla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.