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Havířov vs Břidličná — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Břidličná
Břidličná
6/1/20254. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 28Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Havířov60%
×Draw20%
Břidličná20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
2.30
Břidličná
1.28

Havířov creates 80% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 58 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Břidličná
1.29

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Břidličná
2.22

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Břidličná+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Břidličná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
80%
Havířov or Břidličná
80%
Draw or Břidličná
40%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
38%
Břidličná wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
90%
Havířov 2+ goals
67%
Havířov 3+ goals
40%
Břidličná 1+ goals
72%
Břidličná 2+ goals
37%
Břidličná 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
75%
Břidličná (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Břidličná away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Břidličná defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.30

Břidličná attack 1.29 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Havířov scores more
60%
level
20%
Břidličná scores more
20%

Havířov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Havířov 5–1 Břidličná

Havířov beat Břidličná 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.