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Havířov vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
8/4/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Havířov62%
×Draw19%
Beskyd Frenštát19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
2.38
Beskyd Frenštát
1.25

Havířov creates 90% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
81%
Havířov or Beskyd Frenštát
81%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
38%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
40%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
91%
Havířov 2+ goals
68%
Havířov 3+ goals
42%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
71%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
36%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
77%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.38

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Havířov scores more
62%
level
19%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
19%

Havířov at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havířov vs Beskyd Frenštát

Havířov beat Beskyd Frenštát 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.