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Havelse vs Oberneuland — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Havelse
Havelse
CANC
13:00
Oberneuland
Oberneuland
1/22/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wilhelm-Langrehr-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Havelse55%
×Draw18%
Oberneuland27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havelse
2.88
Oberneuland
2.00

Havelse creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Havelse
3.00
Oberneuland
2.75

allows per match

Havelse
1.25
Oberneuland
2.75

finishing

Havelse+0.00on par
Oberneuland+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havelse ↓

Oberneuland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Havelse or draw
73%
Havelse or Oberneuland
82%
Draw or Oberneuland
45%

Winning margin

Havelse wins by 2+
36%
Oberneuland wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Havelse 1+ goals
94%
Havelse 2+ goals
78%
Havelse 3+ goals
54%
Oberneuland 1+ goals
86%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
59%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Havelse (draw refunded)
68%
Oberneuland (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havelse at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Oberneuland away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havelse attack 3.00 + Oberneuland defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Oberneuland attack 2.75 + Havelse defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Havelse scores more
55%
level
18%
Oberneuland scores more
27%

Havelse at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Havelse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Havelse face Oberneuland (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Havelse hosting Oberneuland. Match starts January 22, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Havelse host Oberneuland at Wilhelm-Langrehr-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.