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Havadar vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
A. Ghaseminejad 84'
S. Bahrani 57' (pen)
12/29/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Havadar55%
×Draw29%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.29
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
0.53

Havadar creates 143% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
0.35

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1.24

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Shenavarsazi Qeshm+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Shenavarsazi Qeshm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
85%
Havadar or Shenavarsazi Qeshm
71%
Draw or Shenavarsazi Qeshm
45%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
26%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
72%
Havadar 2+ goals
37%
Havadar 3+ goals
14%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1+ goals
41%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 2+ goals
10%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
78%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Shenavarsazi Qeshm away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Shenavarsazi Qeshm defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shenavarsazi Qeshm attack 0.35 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Havadar scores more
55%
level
29%
Shenavarsazi Qeshm scores more
15%

Havadar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
S. BahraniPenalty
84'
A. Ghaseminejad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 2–0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm

Havadar beat Shenavarsazi Qeshm 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 29, 2025.

Goals: S. Bahrani (57' pen), A. Ghaseminejad (84').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Tehran.