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Havadar vs Sepahan FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
5/8/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar20%
×Draw29%
Sepahan FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
0.70
Sepahan FC
1.28

Sepahan FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 115 away

creates per match

Havadar
0.59
Sepahan FC
1.38

allows per match

Havadar
1.19
Sepahan FC
0.82

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Sepahan FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
50%
Havadar or Sepahan FC
71%
Draw or Sepahan FC
80%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
6%
Sepahan FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
50%
Havadar 2+ goals
16%
Havadar 3+ goals
3%
Sepahan FC 1+ goals
72%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
37%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
29%
Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Havadar scores more
20%
level
29%
Sepahan FC scores more
50%

Sepahan FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havadar vs Sepahan FC

Havadar and Sepahan FC drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.