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Havadar vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
2 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
12/5/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar50%
×Draw29%
Qashqai Shiraz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.32
Qashqai Shiraz
0.76

Havadar creates 74% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Qashqai Shiraz
0.81

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Qashqai Shiraz
1.29

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
78%
Havadar or Qashqai Shiraz
71%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
50%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
24%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
73%
Havadar 2+ goals
38%
Havadar 3+ goals
15%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
53%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
18%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
70%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.81 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Havadar scores more
50%
level
29%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
22%

Havadar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 2–0 Qashqai Shiraz

Havadar beat Qashqai Shiraz 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.