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Havadar vs Paykan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
11/3/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 9Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar30%
×Draw31%
Paykan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
0.88
Paykan
1.05

Paykan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 100 away

creates per match

Havadar
0.59
Paykan
0.91

allows per match

Havadar
1.19
Paykan
1.17

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
61%
Havadar or Paykan
69%
Draw or Paykan
70%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
10%
Paykan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
59%
Havadar 2+ goals
22%
Havadar 3+ goals
6%
Paykan 1+ goals
65%
Paykan 2+ goals
28%
Paykan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
43%
Paykan (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.88

Paykan attack 0.91 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Havadar scores more
30%
level
31%
Paykan scores more
39%

Paykan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havadar vs Paykan

Havadar and Paykan drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.