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Havadar vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
12/4/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar36%
×Draw33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
0.93
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.82

Havadar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 74 away

creates per match

Havadar
0.59
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Havadar
1.19
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
70%
Havadar or Naft Masjed Soleyman
67%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
64%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
13%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
61%
Havadar 2+ goals
24%
Havadar 3+ goals
7%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
56%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
20%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
55%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.93

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Havadar scores more
36%
level
33%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
30%

Havadar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Havadar 0–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Havadar and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.