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Havadar vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
1 – 3
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
A. Ameri 18' (OG)
A. Ameri 89'
E. Poursheikhali 75'
H. Fazeli 68'
4/19/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar49%
×Draw29%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.26
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.74

Havadar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 82 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.17

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
78%
Havadar or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
71%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
51%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
22%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
72%
Havadar 2+ goals
36%
Havadar 3+ goals
13%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
52%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
17%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
69%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Havadar scores more
49%
level
29%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
22%

Havadar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. AmeriOwn goal
68'
H. Fazeli
75'
E. Poursheikhali
89'
A. Ameri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havadar vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Havadar 3-1 in Azadegan League on April 19, 2021.

Goals: A. Ameri (18' o.g., 89'), H. Fazeli (68'), E. Poursheikhali (75').

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.