Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Havadar vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
1 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
M. Mahboub-Mojaz 16'
6/14/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar39%
×Draw31%
Kheybar Khorramabad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.06
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.88

Havadar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
70%
Havadar or Kheybar Khorramabad
69%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
61%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
16%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
65%
Havadar 2+ goals
29%
Havadar 3+ goals
9%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
59%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
22%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
57%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Havadar scores more
39%
level
31%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
30%

Havadar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Mahboub-Mojaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havadar vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Havadar beat Kheybar Khorramabad 1-0 in Azadegan League on June 14, 2021.

Goals: M. Mahboub-Mojaz (16').

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.