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Havadar vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
2 – 1
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
A. H. Salehi 90+1'
E. Kiani 51'
H. Amini 82'
4/7/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar50%
×Draw28%
Esteghlal Mollasani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.33
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.76

Havadar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
79%
Havadar or Esteghlal Mollasani
72%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
50%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
24%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
74%
Havadar 2+ goals
38%
Havadar 3+ goals
15%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
53%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
18%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
70%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Havadar scores more
50%
level
28%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
21%

Havadar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
E. Kiani
82'
H. Amini
90+1'
A. H. Salehi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 2–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Havadar beat Esteghlal Mollasani 2-1 in Azadegan League on April 7, 2021.

Goals: E. Kiani (51'), H. Amini (82'), A. H. Salehi (90+1').

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.