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Havadar vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
12/2/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Havadar37%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal Khuzestan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.02
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.91

Havadar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 56 away

creates per match

Havadar
0.59
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.63

allows per match

Havadar
1.19
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.46

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
69%
Havadar or Esteghlal Khuzestan
69%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
63%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
14%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
64%
Havadar 2+ goals
27%
Havadar 3+ goals
8%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
60%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
23%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
54%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.02

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.63 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Havadar scores more
37%
level
31%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
31%

Havadar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Havadar 0–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Havadar 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 2, 2024.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.