Havadar 1–0 Chooka Talesh: Result & Stats

Havadar

FT

1 – 0

Chooka Talesh

5/7/2021

Azadegan League · Round 23Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Havadar59%

×Draw26%

Chooka Talesh16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavadarExpected goals in this matchChooka Talesh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.66

Havadar

1.54

Chooka Talesh

0.66

Havadar creates 133% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

1.35

creates per match

0.61

0.71

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Havadar

1.35

Chooka Talesh

0.61

allows per match

Havadar

0.71

Chooka Talesh

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Chooka Talesh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Havadar or draw

84%

Havadar or Chooka Talesh

74%

Draw or Chooka Talesh

41%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+

31%

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals

79%

Havadar 2+ goals

45%

Havadar 3+ goals

20%

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals

48%

Chooka Talesh 2+ goals

14%

Chooka Talesh 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)

79%

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Havadar scores more

59%

level

26%

Chooka Talesh scores more

16%

Havadar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff