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Havadar vs Be'sat Kermanshah — Azadegan League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
M. Tahmasebi 51', 26'
M. Mamashli 68'
A. Dalir 50'
11/30/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Havadar50%
×Draw31%
Be'sat Kermanshah19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
1.21
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.63

Havadar creates 92% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Havadar
1.35
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.55

allows per match

Havadar
0.71
Be'sat Kermanshah
1.06

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
81%
Havadar or Be'sat Kermanshah
69%
Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah
50%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
23%
Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
70%
Havadar 2+ goals
34%
Havadar 3+ goals
12%
Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
47%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
13%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
72%
Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.55 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Havadar scores more
50%
level
31%
Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
19%

Havadar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Tahmasebi
50'
A. Dalir
51'
M. Tahmasebi
68'
M. Mamashli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Havadar 2–2 Be'sat Kermanshah

Havadar and Be'sat Kermanshah drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on November 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Tahmasebi (26', 51'), A. Dalir (50'), M. Mamashli (68').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Tehran.