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Hauts Lyonnais vs Bastia — Coupe de France 2018

Hauts Lyonnais
Hauts Lyonnais
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Bastia
Bastiaadvanced
12/18/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Maurice Rousson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hauts Lyonnais17%
×Draw19%
Bastia64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hauts Lyonnais
1.15
Bastia
2.37

Bastia creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hauts Lyonnais
1.40
Bastia
2.33

allows per match

Hauts Lyonnais
2.40
Bastia
0.89

finishing

Hauts Lyonnais+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hauts Lyonnais ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hauts Lyonnais or draw
36%
Hauts Lyonnais or Bastia
81%
Draw or Bastia
83%

Winning margin

Hauts Lyonnais wins by 2+
6%
Bastia wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Hauts Lyonnais 1+ goals
68%
Hauts Lyonnais 2+ goals
32%
Hauts Lyonnais 3+ goals
11%
Bastia 1+ goals
91%
Bastia 2+ goals
68%
Bastia 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Hauts Lyonnais (draw refunded)
21%
Bastia (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hauts Lyonnais at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hauts Lyonnais attack 1.40 + Bastia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bastia attack 2.33 + Hauts Lyonnais defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hauts Lyonnais scores more
17%
level
19%
Bastia scores more
64%

Bastia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Hauts Lyonnais 1–3 Bastia

Bastia beat Hauts Lyonnais 3-1 in Coupe de France on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Rousson in Feurs.