HauPa 2–4 Roi United: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

HauPa

2 – 4

Roi United

3/24/2024

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HauPa20%

×Draw15%

Roi United65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HauPaExpected goals in this matchRoi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

3.45

HauPa

1.93

Roi United

3.45

Roi United creates 79% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

3.50

3.40

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

HauPa

1.60

Roi United

3.50

allows per match

HauPa

3.40

Roi United

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HauPa+0.00on par

Roi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HauPa ↓

Roi United →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

HauPa or draw

35%

HauPa or Roi United

85%

Draw or Roi United

80%

Winning margin

HauPa wins by 2+

Roi United wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

HauPa 1+ goals

85%

HauPa 2+ goals

57%

HauPa 3+ goals

30%

Roi United 1+ goals

97%

Roi United 2+ goals

85%

Roi United 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

HauPa (draw refunded)

23%

Roi United (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HauPa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Roi United away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HauPa attack 1.60 + Roi United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Roi United attack 3.50 + HauPa defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

HauPa scores more

20%

level

15%

Roi United scores more

65%

Roi United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Roi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff