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HauPa vs GBK — Suomen Cup 2018

HauPa
HauPa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
GBK
GBKadvanced
E. Ervasti 84'
M. Mahdi 79'
T. Maldonado 65', 27'
L. Moraes 41'
4/11/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HauPa16%
×Draw15%
GBK69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HauPa
1.55
GBK
3.20

GBK creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

HauPa
1.60
GBK
3.00

allows per match

HauPa
3.40
GBK
1.50

finishing

HauPa+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HauPa ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

HauPa or draw
31%
HauPa or GBK
85%
Draw or GBK
84%

Winning margin

HauPa wins by 2+
7%
GBK wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

HauPa 1+ goals
79%
HauPa 2+ goals
46%
HauPa 3+ goals
20%
GBK 1+ goals
96%
GBK 2+ goals
82%
GBK 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

HauPa (draw refunded)
19%
GBK (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HauPa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

GBK away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HauPa attack 1.60 + GBK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

GBK attack 3.00 + HauPa defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

HauPa scores more
16%
level
15%
GBK scores more
69%

GBK at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "GBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
T. Maldonado
41'
L. Moraes
65'
T. Maldonado
79'
M. Mahdi
84'
E. Ervasti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HauPa 2 – 3 GBK

GBK beat HauPa 3-2 in Suomen Cup on April 11, 2026.

Goals: T. Maldonado (27', 65'), L. Moraes (41'), M. Mahdi (79'), E. Ervasti (84').