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Haukar vs Sindri — 2. Deild 2018

Haukar
Haukar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sindri
Sindri
7/1/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 10Gaman Ferða völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Haukar63%
×Draw18%
Sindri19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haukar
2.54
Sindri
1.35

Haukar creates 88% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 12 away

creates per match

Haukar
1.99
Sindri
1.08

allows per match

Haukar
1.63
Sindri
3.08

finishing

Haukar+0.00on par
Sindri+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haukar ↓

Sindri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Haukar or draw
81%
Haukar or Sindri
82%
Draw or Sindri
37%

Winning margin

Haukar wins by 2+
41%
Sindri wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haukar 1+ goals
92%
Haukar 2+ goals
72%
Haukar 3+ goals
46%
Sindri 1+ goals
74%
Sindri 2+ goals
39%
Sindri 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Haukar (draw refunded)
77%
Sindri (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haukar at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.63 · 71 matches

Sindri away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haukar attack 1.99 + Sindri defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.54

Sindri attack 1.08 + Haukar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Haukar scores more
63%
level
18%
Sindri scores more
19%

Haukar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Haukar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haukar 1 – 1 Sindri

Haukar and Sindri drew 1-1 in 2. Deild on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Gaman Ferða völlurinn in Hafnarfjörður.