Haukar 4–1 Léttir: Result & Stats | Cup

Haukar

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Léttir

4/8/2022

Cup · 1st RoundGaman Ferða völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haukar88%

×Draw7%

Léttir5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaukarExpected goals in this matchLéttir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.94

1.29

Haukar

4.94

Léttir

1.29

Haukar creates 283% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

4.88

creates per match

0.33

2.25

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Haukar

4.88

Léttir

0.33

allows per match

Haukar

2.25

Léttir

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haukar+0.00on par

Léttir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haukar ↓

Léttir →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Haukar or draw

95%

Haukar or Léttir

93%

Draw or Léttir

12%

Winning margin

Haukar wins by 2+

75%

Léttir wins by 2+

Team goals

Haukar 1+ goals

99%

Haukar 2+ goals

94%

Haukar 3+ goals

83%

Léttir 1+ goals

72%

Léttir 2+ goals

37%

Léttir 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Haukar (draw refunded)

95%

Léttir (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Haukar at home — creates 4.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Léttir away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Haukar attack 4.88 + Léttir defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.94

Léttir attack 0.33 + Haukar defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Haukar scores more

88%

level

Léttir scores more

Haukar at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Haukar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff