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Haukar vs Afríka — Cup 2019

Haukar
Haukar
FT
20 – 0
HT: 10 – 0
Afríka
Afríka
Unknown 90+3', 90+1', 89', 86', 82', 79', 72', 67', 49', 48', 42', 39'
E. Slupski 39', 35', 28'
D. Ingason 36'
A. Ninir 27' (OG)
F. Brynjolfsson 22', 18'
D. Biberdzic 10'
4/5/2024CupCup · 1st RoundBIRTU völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Haukar94%
×Draw4%
Afríka2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haukar
7.58
Afríka
1.41

Haukar creates 438% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Haukar
4.88
Afríka
0.57

allows per match

Haukar
2.25
Afríka
10.29

finishing

Haukar+0.00on par
Afríka+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haukar ↓

Afríka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 34% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
94%6%4.5
85%15%

Double chance

Haukar or draw
98%
Haukar or Afríka
96%
Draw or Afríka
6%

Winning margin

Haukar wins by 2+
86%
Afríka wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Haukar 1+ goals
100%
Haukar 2+ goals
99%
Haukar 3+ goals
95%
Afríka 1+ goals
76%
Afríka 2+ goals
41%
Afríka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Haukar (draw refunded)
98%
Afríka (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haukar at home — creates 4.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Afríka away — creates 0.57, concedes 10.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haukar attack 4.88 + Afríka defence 10.29 → ÷2 → 7.58

Afríka attack 0.57 + Haukar defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Haukar scores more
94%
level
4%
Afríka scores more
2%

Haukar at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Haukar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Biberdzic
18'
F. Brynjolfsson
22'
F. Brynjolfsson
27'
A. NinirOwn goal
28'
E. Slupski
35'
E. Slupski
36'
D. Ingason
39'
E. Slupski
39'
42'
48'
49'
67'
72'
79'
82'
86'
89'
90+1'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haukar 20 – 0 Afríka

Haukar beat Afríka 20-0 in Cup on April 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Biberdzic (10'), F. Brynjolfsson (18', 22'), A. Ninir (27' o.g.), E. Slupski (28', 35', 39'), D. Ingason (36'), ? (39', 42', 48', 49', 67', 72', 79', 82', 86', 89', 90+1', 90+3').

The match was played at BIRTU völlurinn in Hafnarfjörður.