Haugesund 4–2 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Viking

R. Vikstøl 90+2' (OG)

V. Vevatne 84' (OG)

A. Ndour 52', 8'

S. Friðjónsson 20' (pen)

D. Karlsbakk 4'

6/25/2022

Eliteserien · Round 11Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund25%

×Draw24%

Viking51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.68

Haugesund

1.11

Viking

1.68

Viking creates 51% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.74

1.62

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Viking

1.74

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Viking

1.08

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Viking+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

49%

Haugesund or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

75%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

10%

Viking wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

67%

Haugesund 2+ goals

30%

Haugesund 3+ goals

10%

Viking 1+ goals

81%

Viking 2+ goals

50%

Viking 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

33%

Viking (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Viking away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.08 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Viking attack 1.74 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Haugesund scores more

25%

level

24%

Viking scores more

51%

Viking at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Ndour

Haugesund · F

8.5

Match Events

4'

8'

12'

17'

20'

S. FriðjónssonPenalty

46'

N. Walstad← T. Pedersen

46'

R. Vikstøl← S. Pattynama

52'

A. Ndour

61'

N. Sandberg← D. Karlsbakk

61'

Y. de Lanlay← S. Friðjónsson

61'

H. Tangen← M. Solbakken

72'

Julius Eskesen

76'

M. Samuelsen← B. Njie

76'

A. Søderlund← J. Eskesen

77'

David Brekalo

82'

Sondre Flem Bjørshol

84'

V. VevatneOwn goal

87'

Mads Berg Sande

88'

M. Traoré← S. Bjørshol

90+2'

R. VikstølOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundViking

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots5

6Corners1

15Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots5

7On Target3

4Off Target2

8Blocked0

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

459Total Passes266

388Accurate Passes190

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0