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Haugesund vs Vard — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
FT
8 – 1
HT: 5 – 1
Vard
Vard
Unknown 87', 84', 49', 35', 31', 23', 19', 5'
Unknown 14'
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Haugesund60%
×Draw19%
Vard21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
2.54
Vard
1.46

Haugesund creates 74% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Haugesund
2.27
Vard
1.82

allows per match

Haugesund
1.09
Vard
2.82

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
79%
Haugesund or Vard
81%
Draw or Vard
40%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
39%
Vard wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
92%
Haugesund 2+ goals
72%
Haugesund 3+ goals
46%
Vard 1+ goals
77%
Vard 2+ goals
43%
Vard 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
74%
Vard (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Vard away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 2.27 + Vard defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.54

Vard attack 1.82 + Haugesund defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Haugesund scores more
60%
level
19%
Vard scores more
21%

Haugesund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
14'
19'
23'
31'
35'
49'
84'
87'
Haugesund
Vard
Toni Korkeakunnas
Manager: Toni Korkeakunnas
Kolbjorn Fosen
Manager: Kolbjorn Fosen

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Vard

Haugesund beat Vard 8-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.

Goals: ? (5', 14', 19', 23', 31', 35', 49', 84', 87').